In order to see the bigger picture, one must clearly put things into their context. To apprehend Hezbollah issue, we must first understand, that Hezbollah is neither Iranian nor Palestinian but Lebanese.
Hezbollah leaders, members and followers are Lebanese citizens with rights and duties and that is a fact that no one can deny. They are not refugees that can be relocated or dismissed from their territories.
Hezbollah represents an important slice of Lebanese citizens and to be more specific, the Shiite Party represents 1 million 400 thousands Lebanese.
Now, if we want to put these facts into perspective, Hezbollah is undeniably a maritime base for Iran and provides Tehran leverage over the Mediterranean sea.
Hezbollah is the armed wing of Iran in Lebanon and it expanded its activities in Syria.
Although there is a declared animosity today between USA and Iran but one must not forget that it was the United States that gave the P5+1 countries its blessing to engage in negotiations that led to a “Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action” also known as the “Iran nuclear deal” that was reached in Vienna on 14 July 2015.
These same countries are pretty much aware that once the situation in the Middle East region is stabilized, Hezbollah role will diminish.
To this day, Hezbollah role in Lebanon is still strong and its influence is still the same because it has an enabling environment. The vast majority of the Shiites in Lebanon hide Hezbollah ammunitions under their homes.
Supporters of Lebanon’s Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah display Hezbollah and Lebanese flags.
In 2006, a war known as “July war “ was declared between Israel and Hezbollah. Fiercely Hezbollah launched his guerrillas who forced elite Shaldag air force commandos and Sayeret Matkal infantry special forces to withdraw.
To make a long story short, on August 11, the United Nations Security Council unanimously approved Security Council Resolution 1701 that called for an end to the conflict through an immediate ceasefire and the withdrawal of all Israeli forces. In Lebanon, Hezbollah proclaimed victory and people were celebrating in the streets.
Back then, the French under the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) cover, seized the opportunity to wander into the Shiites villages with their Leclerc tanks that are integrated with underground radars. As the 1701 resolution stipulated, the French were accompanied by Lebanese army vehicles. Clearly they didn’t reveal that their intention was to identify Hezbollah tunnels and circulate above them in a zig-zag pathways in order that they fall apart or get blocked.
Villagers who are messengers to Hezbollah leaderships sent Shiite women to throw stones on the French tanks and a whole brouhaha came out of this incident that forced the French army to send back their LeClerc tanks to France.
This incident proved once more that Hezbollah is implemented within the population, that his tunnels and ammunitions are hidden well under the villagers houses and buildings and that convincing Hezbollah supporters not to protect the Party is quite an impossible mission.
Hezbollah is not built on an ideology like the communism whose fight was against capitalism. It rather thrives on religious believes that is existential and represent the Shiites as an identity.
Therefore, Hezbollah followers value death in the name of their Party and the imam Ali. Being a martyr is the ultimate honor that a young man can have as martyrdom is identified with the death of Hussein ibn Ali, grandson of the Prophet Muhammad, who was defeated and killed at Karbala, in modern Iraq.
Hezbollah is organized and has all the characteristics of a State . He is actually a State within the Lebanese State.
50% of the Lebanese population support him. When the opposition also known by 14 March were in the government, they had no choice but to deal with Hezbollah. If 8 March opposed an article to pass, the whole country was paralyzed.
Lebanon is a mosaic state that represents more than 18 religious sects who understood from personal experience that civil war, even if it lasted as long as 15 years, won’t be able to erase important communities like Maronites, Sunni or Shiites etc.
Hezbollah is a complex issue and it is quite impossible to isolate a whole community in Lebanon unlike other countries. It is easier to control Shiites in Bahrein or in Yemen but it is definitely not the case in Lebanon.
When the opposition calls out Hezbollah to give their arms to the Lebanese army as the only legitimate armed institution, it forgets that at any time, Hezbollah leaders can call the Shiite soldiers that represent a big part of the Lebanese army to join the Party and turn against the government and provoke a civil war.
Hezbollah often justifies its existence by being the only force in the Middle East that is fighting Israeli occupation of Palestine. Knowing that any one might ask why would this Shia Party want to defend the Palestinians who are in majority Sunnis.
Let’s give the benefit of a doubt to Hezbollah higher purpose to see a Palestinian State established. So if a two state solution is implemented as Yitzhak Rabin called for and solutions were to be found in the Middle East similar to Camp David or Wadi Araba Treaty. How would Hezbollah justify its existence then?
Rather the calls for war against Hezbollah, peace solutions might just be the perfect way to defeat this yet undefeatable militia.
Christiane Waked is a risk analyst and a former Press Attaché of the French Embassy to the UAE and analyst in the French Interior Ministry
